| # | Coach | PTS | W-D-L | AVG | AVG AGN | WIN% | ALL | DEF | MID | RUC | FWD | Finals% | GF% | Champ% | Spoon% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mark | 20 | 5-0-0 | 1815.2 | 1604.4 | 100.0% | 8.5 | 5.3 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 8.8 | 91.4% | 57.7% | 28.8% | 0.3% |
| 2 | Lester | 16 | 4-0-1 | 1651.2 | 1582.4 | 80.0% | 5.9 | 10.0 | 5.3 | 3.6 | 4.8 | 78.3% | 42.5% | 21.1% | 1.9% |
| 3 | James | 16 | 4-0-1 | 1628.6 | 1445.2 | 80.0% | 5.3 | 0.0 | 7.7 | 6.2 | 7.4 | 78.2% | 41.4% | 20.8% | 1.9% |
| 4 | Simon | 8 | 2-0-3 | 1508.2 | 1586.4 | 40.0% | 4.0 | 4.1 | 0.0 | 4.6 | 7.2 | 40.2% | 16.2% | 8.3% | 12.7% |
| 5 | Paul | 8 | 2-0-3 | 1431.0 | 1482.4 | 40.0% | 2.7 | 3.3 | 0.3 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 36.6% | 14.6% | 7.3% | 14.5% |
| 6 | Jordan | 4 | 1-0-4 | 1586.0 | 1609.4 | 20.0% | 4.6 | 1.9 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 10.0 | 27.6% | 10.1% | 4.9% | 19.8% |
| 7 | Anthony | 4 | 1-0-4 | 1516.0 | 1589.4 | 20.0% | 3.9 | 0.6 | 3.6 | 6.5 | 4.8 | 24.3% | 9.2% | 4.7% | 22.5% |
| 8 | Luke | 4 | 1-0-4 | 1442.0 | 1678.6 | 20.0% | 2.6 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 23.4% | 8.5% | 4.1% | 26.4% |
10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining 21 regular-season rounds are run. For each simulation, every remaining matchup is decided by drawing a score for each team independently from the league-wide scoring distribution (based on all scores across the current season). Both teams use the same distribution, making each game approximately a 50/50 coin flip — so probabilities are driven almost entirely by the current ladder standings.
After simulating the regular season, teams are ranked by league points (4 per win, 2 per draw), with total points scored as the tiebreaker. The top 4 teams qualify for finals.
Finals use the McIntyre double-chance format over 3 rounds:
Top 2 teams get a double chance — they can lose the qualifying final and still reach the Grand Final via the preliminary final. GF% is the chance of making the Grand Final. Champ% (Dawnbreaker) is the chance of winning it.
True team strength — rank if you had played every possible schedule
Schedule difficulty, expected record, and outcome luck
| # | Coach | Opp Rank | Opp Avg | Exp W | Act W | W Luck | 🍀 W | 💔 L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Luke | 2.60 | 1678.6 | 1.3 | 1 | -0.3 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Anthony | 3.20 | 1589.4 | 2.1 | 1 | -1.1 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Jordan | 4.40 | 1609.4 | 2.0 | 1 | -1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| 4 | Lester | 4.60 | 1582.4 | 3.3 | 4 | +0.7 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | Mark | 4.60 | 1604.4 | 5.0 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Simon | 4.80 | 1586.4 | 2.1 | 2 | -0.1 | 1 | 1 |
| 7 | Paul | 5.00 | 1482.4 | 1.1 | 2 | +0.9 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | James | 6.60 | 1445.2 | 2.9 | 4 | +1.1 | 0 | 0 |